Rebel forces in Libya met in Tripoli on Sunday, NATO and U.S. officials cited an intensified U.S. air monitoring around the capital as an important factor to help tip the scales after months of steady erosion of Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi military.
Officials also said that coordination between NATO and the rebels, and among the loosely organized rebel groups themselves have become more sophisticated and deadly in recent weeks, despite the mandate of NATO has been to protect civilians not taking sides in the conflict.
NATO's aim grew more and more precise, a senior NATO diplomat said that as the United States established around the clock surveillance of areas that the reduction of military forces still controlled Libya, using Predator drones armed to detect, track, and sometimes the fire in those forces.
At the same time, Britain, France and other nations deployed special forces on the ground in Libya to help train and arm the rebels, the diplomat and another official said.
"We always knew there would be a point where the effectiveness of government forces would be reduced to the point where it could not effectively command and control their forces," said the diplomat, who was granted anonymity to discuss confidential details of the battle in Tripoli.
"At the same time," the diplomat said, "The learning curve for the rebels with training and equipment increased. What we have seen over the last two or three weeks is these two curves have crossed."
Until Saturday, NATO and its allies had flown 7459 missions of attack, or outputs, attacking thousands of targets, individual rocket launchers to the military headquarters. The cumulative effect not only destroyed the military infrastructure of Libya, but also greatly diminishes the ability of commanders Colonel Gaddafi to control the forces, leaving even committed combat units unable to move, resupply and coordinate operations.
On Saturday, the last day of NATO attacks reported, the alliance flew only 39 missions against 29 targets, 22 of them in Tripoli. In the weeks after the initial bombings in March, however, the allies flew usually 60 or more daily departures.
"NATO has more intelligence," said Frederic Wehrey, policy analyst with the RAND Corporation, which closely follows Libya. "The strikes were better controlled. There was better coordination to prevent collateral damage." Rebels, while poorly trained and poorly organized, even now, made the most direct and indirect support of NATO, more effective target selection and transmission of its location, using technology provided by the various NATO allies, the guidance team of NATO in Italy.
"The rebels certainly has our phone number," the diplomat said. "We have a much better idea of what is happening on the ground."
Rebel leaders in western credited thwart NATO on Sunday to claim Gaddafi loyalists Zawiyah with an assault on the flank of the city.
Government officials greeted with joy watched the events that the overthrow of a hated dictator vindicate the demands of democracy that have swept the Arab world.
A State Department spokeswoman, Victoria Nuland, the president said Obama, who was vacationing on Martha's Vineyard, and other senior U.S. officials were following events closely.
Privately, many officials warned it could still be several days or weeks before the military collapse of Libya, Colonel Gaddafi or his inner circle and give up the fight. As Saddam Hussein and his sons did in Iraq after the U.S. invasion in 2003, the Libyan leader could be sustained and lead an insurgency from its hiding place, even after the capital fell, officials said.
"Trying to predict what this man will do is very, very difficult," said a senior U.S. military officer.
A senior government official said the U.S. had evidence that other members of Colonel Qaddafi's inner circle were negotiating their own output, but no reliable information on the whereabouts or state of mind of Colonel Gaddafi. Audio recordings released by Colonel Gaddafi on Sunday evening, he expressed his defiance, were of limited use in discerning their circumstances.
Although Colonel Gaddafi were to be removed, there is no clear plan for political succession or maintaining security in the country. "The leaders I've talked to do not have a clear understanding of how all this will play," said the senior official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to maintain diplomatic relations.
The United States is already making plans for a post-Gaddafi of Libya. Jeffrey D. Feltman, assistant secretary of state, was in Benghazi at the weekend to meet with rebel leaders on the monitoring policy of a stable and democratic transition. A senior administration official said the U.S. wanted to reinforce the message of the rebel leaders who seek an inclusive transition that brings together all segments of Libyan society.
"While we welcome the fact that the days are numbered and we Gaddafi to see it go as fast as possible, we also want to send a message that the aim should be to protect civilians," the official said.
The government was arranging for the increase of medical supplies and humanitarian aid to Libya.
With widespread firearms on the streets of Tripoli, Human Rights Watch warned NATO to take action to avoid the kind of bloody acts of revenge, looting and other violence that followed the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.
"Everyone should be prepared for the possibility of a very fast, chaotic transition," said Tom Malinowski, director of the Washington office of Human Rights Watch.
